@JollyJew
I am not as pessimistic as you.
The war in Gaza will end when Hamas is no longer in control or power in Gaza. I am not 100% certain that the IDF will never destroy Hamas out of fear that a more extreme organization will fill the vacuum, I think the bigger issue for IDF is that Hamas is so deeply entrenched, militaristically, that any realistic attempt to out them would be an extremely casualty-high move. Urban warfare is one of the most violent, devastating, and civilian-casualty involved style of warfare, and it would serve neither the Israelis or the Gazans any good for such to occur. Oh absolutely Hamas would love a ground invasion – it's why they built those tunnels – because they know the streets like the back of their hand, they would take massive toll on the Israelis, and they know it.
The largest tragedy for the Palestinians is a tendency to rely on horrendous leadership. Although not as popular as it once was Hamas tends to violently silence it's critics in Gaza. But if elections…
Actually this is something I will bring up in this thread because I think it's the bigger picture context.
Elections. Elections E L E C T I O N S.
In Autumn of 2020, the Abraham Accords were signed. For the Palestinians and the Palestinian cause this was the loudest wake up call they had in at least 2 decades. For us in the world it was a welcome sight of seeing normalization of Israel and it's Arab neighbors…but for the Palestinians it was a disaster. For many decades any normalization with the Arab world was effectively cock-blocked by the I/P issue. The Palestinian leadership knew this and used it as leverage. When it became evident that they are no longer the road-block to normalization, it meant that their biggest tool of negotiating leverage was obliterated.
In January of 2021, days before the Inauguration of President Joe Biden, Abbas declares that, after 15 years of rule, he will allow elections. The Legislative Polls will take place in…May of 2021. Keep this in mind.
As the weeks progressed and the two major parties began to assess their campaigns, it became evidently clear that Hamas was a unified party, and Fatah was not. Both parties share historic lows of popularity (with Hamas having a slight edge), which means any victory would mean that they won't hold the majority of popularity. As polling data came out it became clear that Hamas may actually win the election and oust Abbas.
On April 29th, 2021, West Bank PA Abbas realizing that he may lose, makes a declaration. "Palestinian elections in 15 years will be delayed, citing a dispute with Israel to call off a vote in which his fractured Fatah party was expected to suffer another embarrassing defeat to the Hamas militant group." Specifically, he wants it so that East Jerusalem can participate – effectively putting a lot of political pressure on Israel. Hamas, in turn, responds calling it a "coup". This kind of is beneficial to Israel, and the Western World, because the idea that the West Bank and Gaza would fall into the hands of Hamas would be disastrous to say the least.
And so we come into April/May. And a few correlating major issues came up.
Let's begin with everyone's favorite app…TikTok an emergent form of viral videos out of TikTok began to appear where groups of Arabs assaulting's and harassing orthodox Jews. In response to this a group of far-right Israeli youths came out on the streets to harass and tangle with Arabs. of course, such violence spirals out of control when coming into a holy week for Muslims, Ramadan.
The second issue, and the one, everyone seems to be fixated on, without at all understanding the context, is the Sheikh Jarrah which is the eviction of 13 families out of the East Jerusalem neighborhood. This is, effectively, a long running property-rights issue stemming from the 1940s. To summarize: At the end of the war with Israel in 1948, Jordan had control of many East Jerusalem neighborhoods including Sheikh Jarrah, which was largely a Jewish community. The Jews abandoned the property, and fled to Israel. In the 50s the Jordanians built on the property. But the Israelis recaptured the neighborhood during the 1967 war, and annexed the East Jerusalem territory. Since the 70s there have been some Israeli settlers that argued that the property rightfully belongs to them. The settlers say they have a legal right to the land based on an Israeli law that permits Jews to recover property abandoned during the war in 1948. Such a law does not apply to Palestinians (I am bolding this because, I am going to be honest, I sincerely think that this is a legitimate issue to protest, and I side with the Palestinians on this one for sure – abandon your property and it is no longer yours).
The third issue, which stemmed from these two, is the massive riots that occured at the end of Ramadan, and Jerusalem Day, which resulted in massive police clashes on al-Aqsa Mosque (Dome of the Rock). This is too much of a complex issue for me to really comment on, as I do not know what the procedures of Israeli police is in such a situation.
Now add all of this together:
Elections after 15 years where Hamas may have a chance to win. The elections are suspended/postponed, because Hamas may win. At the same time, 3 major flare ups of violence, rioting, and a major supreme court case (in Israel), occur at the same time. What does it equal?
A perfect opportunity for Hamas to present themselves as the champions of the Palestinian cause, when Fatah is divided and ineffectual. This would present them in a good light, while, simultaneously, putting pressure on Abbas to reopen the elections. At the same time, Hamas has had 7 years of preparing and arms stocking. What an opportunity for a show of force and decisive action during such a volatile time. And so the barrage of rockets was launched – which overwhelmed the Iron Dome system and hit certain major population centers in Tel Aviv but also a power plant, and gas pipeline.
The Israelis decided to retaliate.
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At the same time as all this is happening the Israelis are also bracing for a 5th round of elections, with Bibi potentially being outed – and facing criminal charges for corruption. I am quite sure that a part of the ferocity of the response from the Israelis is the desire for Bibi to build a bit good will before he may be ousted, and facing major corruption charges. But on top of that, if he suspects he is going out soon, might as well go out in glory, because the way International Criminal system works (if it ever does) is countries are not prosecuted – individuals are. Whatever the fallout from the retaliation that Israel will face will fall unto Bibi, who is already leaving.
One of my suspicions as to why the US, with the Biden administration (who is not particularly friendly with Bibi Netanyahu) is unwilling to force Israel into a ceasefire now, is that the US understands the bigger picture. I think what is happening, what is really happening, is that the Israelis, under Bibi, is crippling the entire infrastructure of Hamas to it's core, devastating as much as it can. This will make it unable to be effective if elections resume, and giving a major edge to Fatah to win the upcoming Elections. This is why Israel struck Hamas banks, it's intelligence networks, it's underground tunnels, etc. It's crippling Hamas. Which is, consequently, why Hamas is desperately calling for a ceasefire.
A week ago I predicted that Hamas overplayed their hand. It seems I may be correct.