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Nothing is going to happen either way for at least two years, assuming Article 50 is triggered immediately (which forces negotiations with the EU). The drops we're seeing in global markets right now is reactionary. It's caused by the same people who throw themselves off of buildings after a bad day of stocks. It will bounce back in days if not within one.

What concerns the Remain camp most is the uncertainty of the negotiations. Despite also being the largest deficit, the EU still imports the most from the UK. Leave voters decided the uncertainty/sending this very clear message to the government outweighed staying in a failing relationship that was only getting worse. The assumption is that the negotiations will fundamentally change the UK's trade agreements to try and balance some of that growing deficit. Whether or not that ultimately succeeds depends on the negotiators.

Consider that we, the USA, are not in the EU, and do not have a trade agreement with them in place (TTIP is the proposal). Our 2016 trade deficit with the EU so far is ~$50B. Our trade deficit with the UK individually is barely $1B. All things considered, I'm not sure the UK should be most concerned here. Take into account recent mass immigration and labor protests, you start to understand why the majority was willing to risk it.

why do people think the pound dropping has anyhting to do with the UK leaving? it started to drop as soon as votes started, its just reactionary bullshit.

britain might have some hard times ahead but they might pull trough.

That's a lot of might's. But economists have long since predicted that Britain leaving the EU will cost them in the long run. Again, refer back to >Current Year Man from the previous post. We live in a world of globalization. No country can better itself financially by ignoring that reality and trying to shut itself off. Hasn't worked since Matthew Perry came to Japan with guns. On boats. Gunboats.

@AHO

That kind of dip isn't really indicative of anything. Its speculative, based on the doomsayers who think somehow this decision means the UK will sink into the bottom of the ocean because how could any country survive not being in the EU?

Give it 6 months or so, and tell me if the pound is like the frank post ww1, which is what people seem to think will happen to it.

I also question your line of thinking in this being an indicator that Britian will all of a sudden start expelling all foreign business and calling all french fries Union Chips. As far as I can tell, the decision to leave the EU doesn't mean they will just completely ignore all trade anywhere and for any reason.

If anything, this will allow the UK to negotiate better and more stable trade agreements. Because their entire society and economy isn't chained to the hip of the Mediterranean money pits who shouldn't have been allowed in the EU to begin with.

i doubt leaving an economical union is the same as completely isolatiing yourself.

Leaving your biggest trade partner… kinda' is.
@Black Graphic T
I never said they're going to ignore trade, obviously not, but it's not going to be any easier out of the union than in it. Again, they still have to comply with trade regulations, even more really since they don't get any status, same with moving people about the continent. Freeing yourself from being chained at the hip but still being chained at the hand isn't much freer. That's why I mean by ignoring the reality. Just because you're not in a trade agreement doesn't mean you don't have to play nice to get what you want anymore. As we saw, the UK has never played nice with the EU but has still gotten a lot of benefit from it, anyways. Enough institutes have predicted that this hurts the UK for me to agree with that, even though the chances of going into full-blown recession are less likely. (Though still possible and would definitely drag down world markets with it.)

@I am AHO Right?
What exactly does "play nice" mean to you? Because I don't think think it has anything to do with what the Leave campaign says the benefits are going to be from this.

I'm just confused regarding how seriously I should be taking all of the "OMG IT'S HAPPENING, SUCK IT OBAMA" comments on the comments section regarding this topic.

Maybe me having no strong feelings towards this topic is for the best. I have a tendency to sometimes take the approach of "if it ain't affecting me, why should I care?"

Literally all this page you've been decrying that Britian was going to be isolationist. Part of being isolationist, and a big part in fact, is ignoring trade. Its one of the 3 biggest defining traits of an isolated country, the first being refusal to entry and the second being refusal to export.

And what exactly are the institutes basing these assumptions on? Because a lot of them have claimed every single job that involves the EU will end, that all trade will cease between britian and the eu, and that all citizens will be denied entry to the EU, as if any of that has any remote chance of occurring.

Additionally, you claim that they're still tied to hand, but I don't see it. They can now do something called negotiation. I'm sure you're not familiar with it, but what it basically means is, they can discuss with the EU the terms in which they do business, and come to another word you might not be familiar with, a compromise. If the EU is so staunch that they refuse to even consider negotiation with a non-human rights violating country like the UK over sour grapes, then I say all the more good riddance to a union that cannot adapt to change in a global market where entire industries can shift because of an event halfway accross the world,

I know its scary to think of not just looking at every single decision the EU makes and nodding your head in agreement. But I think if these people, who weren't content to just nod their head in agreement to everything the EU told them to do, outnumbered those who were content to just sit there and nod, that is indicative that this deal wasn't a good one. Especially as Germany, the second parent of the Eu and now the only responsible one, continues to suffer economic crisis after crisis over a couple thousand unexpected people being in its country.

The way I see it, the Leave campaign thinks that the EU is holding Britain back, preventing it from making decisions about itself, such as trade, border control, assistance to other EU countries, etc. Only that last one will actually be what the UK can now control any better than it could before. Economics and immigration are largely out of any one country's hands, especially as one as polarized as Britain, considering how close the results were. Like, in America, there's a constant battle between Southern states, at the local and state level, who want to kick immigrants out and the federal level and Eastern, Northern and Western states that want to keep immigrants coming in. (Within reasonable limits.) Likewise, even if Trump were to be elected, chances are he'd never get the Congressional approval necessary to build the wall, much less enforce the bureaucracy to make it work. The Brexit dream of freeing itself from the EU is conflated to freeing itself from seemingly all responsibilities of the modern world, things like global trade negotiations, the reality of mass migration, etc. Just as Trump's goal of "making America great again" through an "America-first" strategy including build a great wall are essentially impossible, so, too are UKIP's promises that this makes the UK free from all types of foreign control. That's the reality they ignore. Foreign debt, international relations, trading agreements, military agreements, nuclear threat, terrorist threat, recession threat, an inter-connected global village via the Internet, all these facets of the modern world prevent any one country from ever breaking free of that cycle. Do you want to see the strongman? Too bad, he doesn't exist. There is no one man or country strong enough to just go on its own and defy the will of the rest. We live in a dependent world and we probably always will, unless nuclear war sends us back to the Stone Age.
That totally sounded like something a character in a Metal Gear game would say, but it's 1:00, cut me a little slack.

Ignoring Japan for a good part of their life, why would any country want to be isolationist to the point of having no trade or no immigration similar to how the US or Canada does it? Hell I know a lot of people would be pissed about just the lack of trade. I can imagine a scenario where the moment gaming consoles are effectively banned in the UK because two are made by Japanese companies and one by an American one would mean a mass gamer riot because you'd be effectively denying gamers new consoles and games.

So I will say I highly doubt the UK's going to go all "Japan circa 1600s until 1800s" level of isolationism.

@I am AHO Right?

"The way I see it, the Leave campaign thinks that the EU is holding Britain back, preventing it from making decisions about itself, such as trade, border control, assistance to other EU countries, etc. Only that last one will actually be what the UK can now control any better than it could before."

This is a pretty preposterous thing to say. The EU enforced legislation related to these issues on Britain that it now no longer has to follow. You have heard about the immigration quotas, right?

And as for the rest, you seem to be acting like Brexit supporters were campaigning for isolationism on the level of North fucking Korea, which I have seen exactly zero evidence of.

They're not? I don't think I ever said they were, I just said isolationism, as a whole, in any situation, hasn't worked for a long, long time. And Britain isn't going full-on isolationist, they're just adapting a strong isolationist policy. One that won't work because isolationism, again, never works in the modern age because no country can afford to ignore what happens outside of it. Amazingly enough, Black Graphic T, I have heard of words like "negotiation" and "compromise". But if you think the UK leaving the EU gives them an advantage in it, you're wrong. For the same reason Donald Trump can't just make good on his promises to whip China and Russia into shape because he'll be "tough on them." The UK already was negotiating with the EU, they're their largest trading partner. But now they don't even get preferred status which the EU will definitely use to their advantage to slap more taxes and whatnot on them, while still imposing the same old regulations on them because every country trying to trade with the EU has to, it's standard procedure. Like I've been saying, this notion that proclaiming independence means you can just ignore all the rules and required conduct and play the game of capitalism your way is pure fantasy.
And lastly, here's a plot twist: I'm actually not an EU shill, because, shockingly, I'm a communist and, also shockingly, they're not. I'm neither on the UK or the EU's "side" because I don't even side with countries or groups of countries, only the working people within those countries. I only support the Stay campaign because I know it's better for the average worker, because regulation tends to be and laissez-faire attitudes tend to not be. Just like I'll support Clinton, like I supported Bernie, even though I really wanted someone even more leftwing. Because that's compromise. The EU is far from perfect, in my own opinion it could never be perfect, but it's better than leaving the UK and by the UK I mean UKIP to its own, racist devices.
/endrant
Okay, fine.
@0.9999…=1
You'd be amazed at the levels of xenophobia flowing not just from Leave supporters, but elected UKIP officials. Have you watched that damn Current Year video yet?
Also, immigrants take low-paying jobs most citizens never would accept. Next question.

I think it's a similar case in America. Most of the jobs illegal immigrants take are usually crap jobs not even middle class Americans want to take. Shit even Kelly Osbourne managed to work in a politically incorrect joke on The View of all damn shows by saying "if Trump builds a wall and deports all illegals then whose gonna clean his toilets?" (or something to that effect).

I'm not really speaking in favor of illegal immigrants though, just saying that for all the big deals some politicians make about "they took our jobs!" they often forget said "jobs" are the shit ones barely any Americans want.

But I realize that's getting off topic. One user in the comments section of this topic pointed out "have any of you people actually taken a moment to consider the effects of this, rather than just spouting /int/ and /pol/ memes?" The hell does /pol/ have to do with this? And wow you mean to tell me some people on here take /pol/ seriously? I thought we treated /pol/ more as a joke since it feels like the amount of unironic nazis coming from there outnumber the ironic ones (especially after hearing information that Stormfront is using /pol/ to push their agendas).

Voting results showed above 50 voted mostly for leave, while under 50 voted mostly for stay.

The younger generations feel really fucked now, because they now have to stay longer in a Britain whose fate has been decided by folks who are irrelevant in 20 years.

I really doubt the EU can tell the UK to accept its immigrants and refugees no questions asked. Anymore then it could order the US to stop being so mean to each other, or order Switzerland to not be neutral anymore.

You also don't seem to know much about how the United States views immigration. The US is a nation of immigrants, but that doesn't mean we need an open border no questions asked or we're trying to bring back segregation ((THIS IS HYPERBOLE)).

The EU decided to, in my opinion, violate a lot of its tennants. And there are many videos to show how it's done so. These violations culminated into the EU of today being completely different from the EU that was founded and envisioned by the people of Europe.

The UK's negotiations obviously weren't listened to, because this frustation didn't just spring up with 1 single cover of a tabloid magazine. Being "in negotiations" doesn't mean much if the other side doesn't want to listen to what you wish to compromise on, that being the refugees and bailing out failing countries.

And if the other nations of europe want to throw a hissy fit and deny the UK trade of its goods, or mark them up with ridiculous tax hikes, thats on them to do so. My only doubt is that the EU doesn't strike me as having the balls to suffer through its goods rising in price, and the discontent that might cause its native citizens. Likely the tax raises will be negligable, and if not, the EU will suffer as well as the UK, in this age of globalization.

That's pretty funny tbh. Those who don't participate in the democratic system, and do nothing but complain about it, claiming to be relevant in any way.

It's like me claiming that my opinion is relevant on the African Union Summit, when I don't live in Africa, and will never live in Africa. And that anyone who takes part in it will never be as relevant as I willl be 20 years from now.

Maybe if the young people felt so strongly about this they would have made a more persuasive argument. Or done stuff to sway these older people not to vote this way, instead of just going "Well you're old so shut up and fuck you".

@I am AHO Right?

You are aware that this does not stop the UK from continuing to mingle with other countries, right? Leaving this one group, no matter how how big of a step that is, does not prove they're going isolationist. Now if they were simultaneously also abandoning NATO, the IMF etc then you might have a point. But they aren't. And it seems that you could use this reasoning to justify any country remaining in any multinational organizations no matter the particular details.

"The UK already was negotiating with the EU, they’re their largest trading partner."
Of course they are- the EU is most of Europe smashed together, which is the continent the UK is technically a part of. But still, they're losing relevance for them, and fast.

"But now they don’t even get preferred status which the EU will definitely use to their advantage to slap more taxes and whatnot on them, while still imposing the same old regulations on them because every country trying to trade with the EU has to, it’s standard procedure."
What the hell? The EU can't impose regulations on them, because they won't be a part of it! The UK will still have full control over their laws in this regard. Making a few decisions to appease these countries is in no way the same thing as having a host of decisions made for them. Are you seriously suggesting that the EU would sever economic ties with an independent UK because of having some laws they don't like?

"Like I’ve been saying, this notion that proclaiming independence means you can just ignore all the rules and required conduct and play the game of capitalism your way is pure fantasy."
You still have yet to convince anyone that this is what Leave campaigners were selling people.

"racist"
Oh boy. I wonder what actions from these people lead you to think that this is an appropriate word to use. I'm sure that it had nothing to do with criticizing a religion or its effect on the actions of a group of people, because that would be really stupid… right?

I just said I was NOT speaking in favor of illegal immigration, I never said the US needs a border that's open to where literally everyone goes in and out, I mainly just said that one specific aspect about illegal immigrants that people complain about is one that actually doesn't seem like the biggest issue (I'm sure there there are better arguments one can make regarding "issues with illegal immigration" besides "they're taking jobs… that frankly barely any Americans wanted to begin with").

Shit I'll say right now I USED to think Europe treated borders similarly to how the US and Canada treats them. I don't know why I thought that at one point, but now I know Europe's surprisingly more open than I thought.

I was talking to AHO, I just forgot to say so. Its late, my apologies.

So the UK leaves the EU and David Cameron leaves the UK (in a few months)

I don't know what you've been smoking, but I don't think you become relevant until age 50. The youth has the future.

The decisive factor was most likely the labour class above age 50, folks who grew up mostly without any proper schooling.

If you know what shit you might get into with your vote, go ahead and vote what you think is better. Does anyone here really know what'll happen? No. But at least schooling helps you understand what's better. Don't vote option A because your neighbour told you so.

The younger generations nowadays are much better schooled and familiar with the ways of the world than most of the older generation. It's the era of global economics, and the older generations think you can just survive without them.

reads newspaper
stocks are crumbling
David Cameron leaves

That's what ya get for "we can do without EU"
Now hell's loose, i really wonder how this'll play out.
I hope things will end up alright, if not…

I don't want this armageddon.

They also don't vote.

72% of the voting populace turned out to vote for this bill. That means 28% couldn't be bothered to decide the so called fate of their country. Now call it a hunch, but I dobut it was the 50 year old working man who didn't show up to vote.

Likely it was the 21 year old in the plaid shirt, skinny jeans, and trilby hat who decided that voting was for squares, but now want to come onto the internet to bitch, whine, moan, and doomsay about how the UK is over.

If they decided not to vote, then this is the future they chose. I don't think I stated the opposite anywhere in my post.

But look at it as you want. Fact remains that Brexit won because Bremain voters didn't vote. Democratically speaking, that means the total populance of Britain is still against a Brexit.

So now that the Bremain youth fucked itself, they won't make that mistake again. By the next elections, they'll be certain to vote, and I doubt that'll do UKIP good.

To be fair, the turnout was extremely large.

@RandomMan
"Democratically speaking, that means the total populance of Britain is still against a Brexit."
The parts of this sentence before and after the comma do not mesh with each other. A democracy is not a system where everyone's minds get magically read and we figure out what to do from there. You have to actually put your position on the record.

True, it was insane, but the difference was 52/48 for Brexit. That’s like a few hundred thousand voters.

Those that decided not to vote therefore were a big decisive factor. That fuckup is now gonna cost them.

@0.999999

Fair enough, but you understand what I mean.

Scotland had 62% voting against a Brexit; Northern-Ireland 55%. Scotland is now looking into seperation again, and Northern-Ireland is now considering joining Ireland to make a Republic of Ireland. No word on Gibraltar yet, but with 95% there voting against Brexit, them joining Spain wouldn't suprise me.

Then again, it'll take years before they're actually gone. 5,000 European Laws and Regulations which now have to be rewritten to ensure Britain can continue without Europe and vice versa. Who knows what'll happen along the ride.

Okay, ignore the drops in markets if you want, as they might just be reactionary and fix themselves in the short term, or they might stay that way.

I ask: when will the important, long-term effects (both positive and negative) that this referendum is supposed to cause, start to appear? A month, a year, 5 years? Personally i'm waiting to see either side going "See? We told you so".

This so hard. I heard from a friend that apparently the people in our school are similarly not very happy. There's data to suggest that people around my age were way more interested in voting to remain. I personally am also incredibly disappointed in these resuts.

Plus, to go through with these years of uncertainty, our gutless coward PM is stepping down, even after he said he wouldn't, so we're going to be leaderless too. Yay.

Looking on twitter, I feel like the only person under 25 thats actually happy with this outcome

The leave vote was won thanks to a generation of baby boomer 65+ year olds who will die before the long term consequences really start to kick. As someone who can only see a net loss from this Leave vote, my generation, who voted roughly 75% remain, is getting completely screwed by this.

Scotland will likely call for another independence referendum, independance/republicanism sentiment may grow in Northern Ireland.

David Cameron resigns which i would normally celebrate but right now he's most likely going to be replaced by Boris Johnson.

just
fuck
my
country
up
fam

Europe has trade treaties with over 60 countries, which only apply if you trade under the European flag.

No longer for Britain.

Sure, you can say those treaties can be remade, but no treaty is going to be as beneficial as the European one as trading with just Britain isn't as beneficial for the other party as the entirety of Europe. Not to forget it's gonna take years to fix.

By the time Britain got all of that shit fixed, the net loss will be so big that the Pound will only be sufficient enough to lit a campfire with.

They fucked themselves big time. Good luck with the shitshow, Boris.

@21 & BitterBrit

This one says it nicely (it's a poll, so data differs from the actual votes):

I was not expecting this at all. That said the path to leaving the EU looks pretty uncertain so we'll have to see how it plays out.

In my opinion the UK fell for the sovereignty meme hard. Scotland, Northern Ireland and Gibraltar don't seem to be happy with the outcome and the Pound is already crashing for the time being, which of course leads to panic in the global economy. We'll have to wait and see, but the current situation isn't looking very good to me.

Will you all please take a deep breath and stop acting like retards.

It was already on its way back up within HOURS last night, it will dip as the rest of the world wakes up and realizes what happened (and markets actually open for the day) and then it will go back up as the shock wears off. We've seen this pattern every time a major country makes any kind of moves, don't you all remember being in a thread exactly like this a few months ago watching the DOW plummet due to Chinese uncertainty and OPEC tanking oil prices?

{ you can say those treaties can be remade, but no treaty is going to be as beneficial as the European one as trading with just Britain isn’t as beneficial for the other party as the entirety of Europe. }

whoa bruh, do my future next, how many kids am I going to have? Since you apparently know it all, please do share!

The whole point of voting leave was to force those very negotiations so the UK has a chance. You have no idea what approach they'll take or what the results will be. This could be the best decision the UK has ever made in the long run. You're acting the most histrionic here out of everyone ffs.

Here's a more detailed demographic breakdown of voters

>Lisa has no clue what leave brings
>Promotes leave anyways
>"why is everyone except me such an idiot"

It's 60 treaties and 5,000 European laws/regulations. Britain was part of the EU for 40 years. They're not getting out of this shitshow without some losses.

People are already collecting signatures for a new referendum, which passed the requirement at record speed.

At this rate you'll be back to the voting booth in a year.

I am not a British citizen, so there's no need for me to panic, and as such I am not panicking.

Only a fool would denounce the opposition's opinion as panic in order to give themselves an excuse to ignore it and feel superior.

For now it's wait and see. I am of the opinion they fucked themselves, you disagree, and neither of us is right as neither of us can confirm it yet.

>Comparing global superpowers like the US and China to an itty bitty European country

Things work differently when you're a smaller country. That's why Europe is a thing.

I'm very clearly engaging you in a discussion about it in spite of your histrionics, not sure how you can claim I'm ignoring your opinion.

{ I am of the opinion they fucked themselves, you disagree, and neither of us is right as neither of us can confirm it yet. }

That's all I said to you in the first place as you were telling us all how definitely Britian fucked themselves and how the treaties will never be as good as what they had and how it will take YEARS to fix but the British Pound will be CAMPFIRE FUEL by that point.

but ur not panicking.

When we discuss economies we compare them by their GDP.

The US: 2.4
China: 7.3
The UK: 2.9
The EU: .09

One of these things is not like the other~
One of these things does not belong~

I'm pretty sure that the UK wont be fucked. Worse off? Maybe. But then maybe they do really well.

This decision has been planned for, we've already seen a slight rise back up with the pound.

That’s all I said to you in the first place as you were telling us all how definitely Britian fucked themselves and how the treaties will never be as good as what they had and how it will take YEARS to fix but the British Pound will be CAMPFIRE FUEL by that point.

Well yes, it takes it at least years before they're even out of the EU. It's not exactly a calm ride. That ride won't be beneficial for the pound. The current drop is a reaction, but I don't see it back to its old level by next week.

Campfire fuel is to make fun of it. I don't know why you believe I believe the Pound will decrease to say 1% of its current value. That's next to impossible.

@Spider

Worse off, fucked, tomatoes, potatoes; I choose my words differently I guess.

The pound which has only continued to increase from when I posted a mere hour ago…

ed: I annotated

Pretty sure everyone is awake now.

I'd like to know your definition of increase, because it's mostly fluctuating since the drop.

That's a 24 hour average, I'm posting from a real time graph. It hasn't even been 24 hours.

Since the drop bottomed out, its been fluctuating but towards the positive with reactionary dips from newly opened markets. The traders in Asia woke up and those inclined to startle easily sold out first thing just like the people in the UK did, but it absorbed that drop by the time North America woke up, and now it's working to absorb that drop. It will probably spike down a couple more times as news of Cameron stepping down spreads and as other major announcements are made, which it will then absorb as well. It's not in a freefall.

This is what it will look like when Trump is elected too. A certain number of traders are simply not willing to risk the uncertainty, they do not want to gamble on the future so they're getting out now. That's all we're seeing.

Given how those things rise and fall constantly, I prefer averages. It updates every x minutes, good enough for discussions.

We'll see in a week. If by then it's (as-good-as) back to its old level, I'll admit my wrong; if it's not, you'll admit yours. I think with that we can close this currency topic.

Why a week exactly? What if it takes a month? So long as it's in the near future I really don't see how it matters.

AHAHAHAHAHAHAH