I got a PM request for an explanation of why I'm critical of AGW, and since we haven't had a climate thread in awhile I figured I'd make one so we can all participate in this discussion
edit: I have officially written past the forum post limit :|
OP continues into second post.
Definitions:
Anthropogenic Global Warming: global warming caused completely or nearly completely by human activity.
Climate Change: a more correct way to refer to the variations in our climate, but has been appropriated by the mainstream media to refer mostly to human activity because they needed a new buzzword once actual observations became a bit more complex than their "temperature rising, graph go up in diagonal line" models thought they'd be.
Consensus Authority: a label 100% made up by the IPCC to refer to themselves. One single entity which refuses to submit to peer review could never be called a consensus, let alone an authority.
What is the debate?
There is a scientific consensus that the climate is definitely changing. A few really divisive questions that linger are: Is the climate changing too quickly? How much of the recent change is driven by human action? Is CO2 as damning as we make it out to be?
We will focus on these three questions. While we can't really answer them outright, we can explore what makes their answers so hard to come by and why our current 100%-anthropogenic-evil-CO2 point of view is not as clear cut as the IPCC and world leaders insist it is, which will hopefully help you be more critical in discussing our ecologic problems and their possible solutions.
Is the climate changing too quickly?
The IPCC says that over 200 years ago, the planet was dramatically cooler than it is now. They say it's the early CO2 emissions from fossil fuels that drove the change we see continuing now.
200 years ago, the planet was indeed significantly cooler. It was a period called the Little Ice Age, which followed a medieval warm blip.
Go back 12,000 years and you see we were leaving an actual ice age (and a single 2000 year period of a time scale of hundreds of millions which can not be arbitrarily designated the climate optimum just because it seems to be working out for humans at this current point in time).
Look at the whole climate history of the planet and it should be obvious that the climate has never been at any sort of steady optimum.
Note that the time scale is going from hundreds of millions to hundreds of thousands to thousands, so the closer to the current year you go, the more you're zooming in and taking things out of a long-term context. (Also note that the two red dots at the end are the IPCC model's apocalypse predictions.)
So what does this mean in regards to how fast the climate is changing today? Well, compared to 200 years ago, in the middle of the so-named Little Ice Age, the climate is warming more quickly today. Compared to 10,000 years ago, the ending of a full blown ice age, it's warming more slowly.
At this point, the question loses context without discussing the second question: can the change today be attributed to natural warming we see at the end of cold eras/ice ages? is it possible the Little Ice Age only ended (in the mid 1800s) because of anthropogenic global warming caused by the Industrial Revolution (beginning in the mid-late 1700s)? We can't discount either of these possibilities, yet they are also not mutually exclusive.
How much of the recent change is driven by human action?
The IPCC attributes all recent climate change to human action with a confidence of 95-100%, a view shared by more than a hundred government organizations across the world blah blah blah says wikipedia.
The reason you never hear any other specific percentages or quantities to combat this claim is because there is no scientist who is willing to provide such a number. How can this be? I'm sure you've all heard claims that 97% of all scientists worldwide have published research which agrees with this claim. NASA also continues cites this 97% figure on their website to this day. This number is the result of an analysis of abstracts which has been thoroughly debunked and caused outrage among some of the authors whose papers were counted as "supporting anthropogenic global warming" when they themselves insist their research does not support a conclusion either way.
The analysis of abstracts was originally lead by John Cook, the creator of Skeptical Science (which sounds like it might be a climate change denier's website, which is intentional in order to get people who have become slightly skeptical of the accepted agenda to click on his website instead of somewhere else that might expose him). I've posted a shit ton about this before, so I'm going to post a summary and links which explain it far more thoroughly.
Cook's analysis was directly refuted by Anthony Watts in the journal Earth System Dynamics (which went on to reject another of Cook's unrelated papers because it lacked scientific basis). Popular Tech contacted many of the authors whose papers were cited by John Cook as supporting anthropgenic global warming and obtained statements from them directly. David Friedman also provided an explanation of how they came to the 97% figure by excluding over 50% of their original sample because they expressed a neutral stance. The National Review debunks John Cook and a few copycat analysis (and features an old video of Ted Cruz questioning an AGW alarmist about the observational pause in warming data, who himself paused an awfully long time before spitting out the "97% of scientists agree!!!" statistic).
{ Dr William Briggs, “Statistician to the Stars”, said: “In any survey such as Cook’s, it is essential to define the survey question very clearly. Yet Cook used three distinct definitions of climate consensus interchangeably. Also, he arbitrarily excluded about 8000 of the 12,000 papers in his sample on the unacceptable ground that they had expressed no opinion on the climate consensus. These artifices let him reach the unjustifiable conclusion that there was a 97.1% consensus when there was not.
“In fact, Cook’s paper provides the clearest available statistical evidence that there is scarcely any explicit support among scientists for the consensus that the IPCC, politicians, bureaucrats, academics and the media have so long and so falsely proclaimed. That was not the outcome Cook had hoped for, and it was not the outcome he had stated in his paper, but it was the outcome he had really found.” }
{ Christopher Monckton of Brenchley, an expert reviewer for the IPCC’s imminent Fifth Assessment Report, who found the errors in Cook’s data, said: “It may be that more than 0.3% of climate scientists think Man caused at least half the warming since 1950. But only 0.3% of almost 12,000 published papers say so explicitly. Cook had not considered how many papers merely implied that. No doubt many scientists consider it possible, as we do, that Man caused some warming, but not most warming. It is unscientific to assume that most scientists believe what they have neither said nor written.” }
So how do we use this information to answer our original question: how much of the recent change is driven by human action? Inconclusive. "Some but not most." That's truly the most real answer science currently has, yet the significant non-anthropogenic aspect is completely overlooked by these global government climate organizations when legislating nothing but CO2 emissions before congratulating themselves for saving the world.