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Does the feral hogs guy have a point, from a mathematical standing? And can a spreadsheet prove it?

Last posted Aug 07, 2019 at 07:37AM EDT. Added Aug 07, 2019 at 07:37AM EDT
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I was going to make this a comment on the Feral Hogs (https://knowyourmeme.com/memes/feral-hogs) meme page, but it got way too long so I decided to just make it a post. It mostly turned into rambling anyway, but I'm mostly still mentioning it to talk about the spreadsheet I tried making:

Now look, I've never been hunting myself, it's not really in my tastes. Nor do I have much knowledge about guns. I just want to know how feasible this is. So time to go full autism.

So let's assume they're talking about feral pigs. Not hybrids. I'd assume a feral pig isn't exactly that flimsy of an animal, but if they're actually made of paper, sure. A swarm of 40 feral pigs is in your open rural paddock or something. Pigs are pretty repetitive animals, so if 40 pigs enter your paddock for the first time, something is up. Probably a drought. If it's a drought, it's hot. If it's hot, feral pigs are generally nocturnal. So it's night and 40 pigs are getting a bit to close too your children, 300 metres let's say. Your children are also fucking morons who stand still the whole time.

Based on what I've read, they're aggression is usually limited to other pigs. Unless they're cornered or injured, like most animals. They're also quick to flee and never return. Pigs are extremely smart animals. Your kids have done something to warrant the pigs charging. Fire a few shots and they'd likely scatter.

But let's say they don't, and those fucking hogs are getting closer. They can hit speeds of 50km, and generally weight around 100-140kg. Your kids aren't getting away. At this point, the universe probably wants your kids fucking dead. But you have your assault rifle. Let's say it's an AR-15 style, specifically, a Smith & Wesson M&P15. It's apparently the most popular rifle in the USA. It's got a 30 round detachable box magazine (I am trying so hard to be as specific as possible so that some gun-nut doesn't decide to derail into how wrong I am). You have unlimited ammo.

It's got a caliber of 5.56mm NATO/.223. I don't know what that means, but it's probably relevant to someone. Apparently it can fire 60 rounds a minute. So 1 bullet per second. And let's assume it takes 10 seconds to reload, and fire instantly upon reloading. We'll call the process of firing 30 rounds (which takes 30 seconds) a 'cycle'. Let's say with each shot, you have a 50% chance to kill a feral pig, since I'm just going to assume that's how tough a feral pig is. It's also 100% accurate regardless of distance, you hit every shot.

The pigs are out for blood, they're 300 metres away at, let's say a consistent 25km/h, that's approximately 7 metres per second. Let's also simplify this by saying the pigs instantly kill the kids upon impact, and at the same time, even if only 1 pig is alive.

You have ~43 seconds to kill 40 hogs. It's impossible. Assuming ever shot instantly kills the pig the best you can get is 32 pigs. 30 from your first load, and 2 from your next. But we can go deeper, assuming that exactly 50% of the shots you took failed, you have only killed 16 pigs. Either way, you have 28 shots left once your kids are dead. You pull them on yourself because you couldn't protect your children from the Hogs of Hell.

But they said they have 3-5 minutes to kill the pigs, we'll go high and say 5. Again, assuming all the same information I've previously given. In order for you to have 5 minutes before your children are dead, the pigs would need to be 125km away. In that time, you can complete 12.5 cycles and 12 reloads. That's 375 bullets. Assuming every shot instantly kills a pig, you'd be completed in 1.333.. (fuck repeating numbers) cycles and 1 reload. Assuming it 50% of shots fail to kill, it would be 2.6 cycles and 2 reloads.

Therefore, it's perfectly reasonable for one guy with a Smith & Wesson M&P15 to mow down 40 pigs in 5 minutes! Of course, that's in this ideal theoretical maths world. What does that have to do with the point? NOTHING!

The sources used (although they weren't really relevant, sorry!):
https://www.smith-wesson.com/firearms/mp-15-sport-ii-promo-kit-30-rounds
https://www.cbsnews.com/pictures/most-popular-guns-in-america/13/
https://articles.extension.org/pages/64381/feral-hog-behavior
https://www.dpi.nsw.gov.au/biosecurity/vertebrate-pests/pest-animals-in-nsw/feral-pigs/feral-pig-biology
https://www.fullforcehunting.com.au/blog/full-force-australian-hunting-blog/australian-feral-pig-behaviour/
https://www.daf.qld.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0008/63926/IPA-Feral-Pig-Control-Manual.pdf
https://www.wideopenspaces.com/4-ways-eradicate-hogs-land/
https://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/Smith_%26_Wesson_M%26P15

I also made a cool spreadsheet designed so anyone can run their hog-slaying calculations! It can do a bunch of cool things, including modify the clip size, fire-rate, and chance of hog-slaying! You will need to download it in order to use it. Note that it's not perfect, there are flaws with it that I know exist. I stayed up all night and through most of today to work on this. But at this point, I think it's somewhat functional enough.

https://bit.ly/2KuGFEo

Please enjoy! And if you know what's causing some of the shit to screw up, lemme know!

Skeletor-sm

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