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Today, for the first time, using the first iteration of my first model, I predicted how a political event will go – specifically, how the House of Representatives will end up after the midterms. So, naturally, I figured I'd make it into a game.

Can you beat my model? Can KYM, as a group, beat my model?

So here's the game. I will, about once a month, provide an update to my predictions here. Each person is allowed to make a prediction once a month as well. After the midterms, everyone who's predicted the House result at any point will be put on a leaderboard to show who did the best.

Predictions made earlier will have more weight – so if you do well early on, then you'll be ranked highly at the end.

Just post in this thread with your prediction of how many seats each party will get in the House this month. I'll update the OP with everyone's predictions.

August Predictions:

march:
the communists win and take over the united states establishing a new glorious age of world conquest.

February Prediction:

The Dems do not get any majority in DC, but likely hold onto power they already have in many state level elections. Internal party civil war between the new blood zealots/antifa wing will attempt to oust the establishment wing of the party will not help them in the elections. So until they get that problem sorted out, the Dems are going to have a hard time of it.

The Republicans still retain power, but many long term sitting elected officials will be either primaried out, retire, or get hit by conventions and get tossed out. This might lead to instability for a short term, long term it should improve the party.

Rivers gets maybe one kick in before I absolutely demolish her cute face with these fists. Rivers succesfully beaten.

Interesting prediction. Could you give a rough seat number for the House, though? I'm primarily looking for seat numbers, as that's the most objective way to grade people.

I'm a hedger, but Rivers want's me to give an exact house number, so I'll say Dems 217.

I'm gonna say its an even switch with Antifa Supersoldiers and BLM commando squads at 238 and White parents and Small Business Owners at 193

I'm going with the predication that Democrats will get 201 seats, and even though we're not betting on Republicans seating, I give them 234 seats.

Fools, there is only one way it could possibly end!

D-2

Just y'all wait

D-218

I'm just guessing at this point

D-213

Shitposts aside: Ok, since the thread asks us to beat a system, that'll be my goal. Rivers says D-226, which I consider too high, so I'll go with D-225.

Giveing my two cents, maybe D-205

Congrats Stoffe on bringing the average down to 190 when every single guess except yours is over 200.

^ Switch to a median calculation of average tbh.

Obviously D-0, R-0, NWO-all seats.

Congrats Stoffe on bringing the average down to 190 when every single guess except yours is over 200.

Funny, I was considering addressing that last night but decided not to.

^ Switch to a median calculation of average tbh.

I was just gonna remove the outliers at the end (with Dixon's Q test) but this'll work in the mean time.

Current note: My model is notably more favorable to the Dems than y'all. The consensus atm is that the Democrats won't get a majority, instead falling just a tad short. Meanwhile, my model proposes a decent ledge over a majority, in a way that might make their majority fairly safe for the next presidential election.

The way I perceive the current consensus, people are still seeing a positive trend in the jobs market, the tax reform made it through, and the budget is pretty much a done deal (or maybe it is already because I haven't had time for news too much recently). Things could change by November, but as of right now, things are looking good for the Repubs. If things stay stable over the next few months, then the moderates will lean right in their voting and Dems could loose seats, but any change in the other direction will likely result in a win for Dems. I guess that makes me a glass half empty Dem?
¯\(ツ)/¯

Alright, I've updated the OP for March. My model, partly by design and partly because the polls haven't shifted much (if at all), is still predicting basically the same thing.

Go ahead and put up your predictions now. If you don't, I'll simply count your current prediction as the same as your last prediction.

The Democrats will lose seats but not alot.

They're already sitting at 193.

They'll probably be at 189 after all is said and done. I could give my long-winded explanation as to why, but I doubt this is the thread for that. :)

While my original opinion still stands, part of me feel things are gonna be a more subtle upwards shift rather than a larger one. But i like to hold onto the guess with less likely odds more so than a more conservative estimate anyways.

@Mom Rivers

So we keep guessing until an actual hearing?

Where are the Stats for Feb/2018

They're in the "February Predictions" spoiler. And yeah, once a month until the election.

I've updated the OP with my prediction and archived the March predictions. My prediction only changed one seat. Next month will likely change more, as it shifts gears entering May.

If you want, you can provide a new prediction for April.

I vote dems take every single seat.

D-180
Blind guess here

Alright, I've updated it for April, so May guesses are good to go. Previously, my prediction was 227, and the median was 213, meaning I was more optimist than y'all in general by 14 seats.

My prediction now has dropped some, from 227 to 222 – a drop of 5 seats.

Feel free to drop your guesses in now.

So, I let this sit for a few months, as I didn't want to keep bumping it into oblivion. I think it's fitting to revive it now for a few reasons.

1) We're approaching the end of the primaries.
2) No more new candidates can sign up.
3) The polls are getting increasingly predictive.
4) Numerous reliable sources, such as Sabato's Crystal Ball and Cook Political have put out their reports.

For convenience's sake, I'm carrying over past predictions to each new month when a new prediction isn't provided. For brevity's sake, I'm not putting in the OP all the repeated scores each month.

I did a little extra stats-ing on the data.

My August Prediction: 221 seats
Likely Range: 204-238
Permissible Range: 172-270
CHANCE OF DEMOCRATS WINNING: 55.7%

The permissible range shows how far is "okay" before the model is determined to be utter and complete garbage. The image above cuts off farther out than the permissible range, showing everything but the most negligible of possibilities.

cool! almost forgot about this thread

177-250

D: 215
Thought I'd put in my own guess before election day this week

going partly on 538's model https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/?ex_cid=rrpromo
237
I think it will be in the upper range of the forecast. Democrats are getting a crazy amount of fundraising, the republican president is very unpopular, and I think many polls might be over-correcting to lean more republican after the 2016 election even though polling was actually fairly accurate then.

I think the senate will stay at 51-49