Polymarket

Submission 589

About

Polymarket is an online gambling hub in which people can wager on the outcome of real-life events such as elections, the Olympics, ongoing news stories and other happenings. The prediction market launched in 2020 but gained significant prominence during the 2024 United States Presidential Election cycle when media outlets and experts reported on how the site trended with regards to developing news stories related to the election.

History

Polymarket was founded in March 2020^[1] by Shayne Coplan. It initially grew popular during the COVID-19 Pandemic, but in 2022, it was fined $1.4 million for violating rules related to registering as a gambling website.^[2]

The site saw a second surge in interest in June 2023 as it hosted bets related to the Oceangate Submarine Incident. In 2024, it drew major investments from Vitalik Buterin, the co-founder of Ethereum, and Peter Thiel, a billionaire investor and tech mogul who co-founded PayPal and Palantir Technologies.^[4]

Also in 2024, Polymarket received media attention for how it responded to trends in the U.S. Presidential Election. In July 2024, The Wall Street Journal^[5] was among several news organizations that ran a piece on how the site responded to rumors that Joe Biden would withdraw from the 2024 Presidential race. They also covered^[6] how the marketplace responded to the Trump shooting.

The site has insisted its mission is to "help people better understand the world around them" as a barometer of public opinion, and not to profit off unfortunate global events.^[3]

Features

On Polymarket, users bet with cryptocurrency,^[3] which allows it to sidestep current government regulations on gambling. Buy-in betting prices on the site are set on the percentage of wagers placed on Yes or No questions. For example, on July 23rd, 2024, 51 percent of wagers have been placed on "Yes" to the question, "Will Kamala Harris Win the Popular Vote?" Thus, the minimum bid to vote "Yes" is 51 cents, while the minimum bid to vote "No" is 49 cents (shown below).

L OF THE PRESIDENT OF THE UN VIV $53,313,855 Bet①Nov 4, 2024 Presidential Election Popular Vote Winner 2024 % CHANCE OUTCOME Polymarket Kamala Harris 51% Bet Yes 51.0¢ Bet No 49.2¢ $2,254,186 Bet Donald Trump $4,793,872 Bet 43% Bet Yes 43¢ Bet No 58¢

While Polymarket has drawn attention for its election-related markets, it also allows users to wager on more frivolous topics, such as the number of Elon Musk tweets over a given period of time, which film will be the highest-grossing of the year, and "Will Trump Say 'mog' In 2024?"